The Upshot’s elections model suggests that Hillary Clinton is favored to win the presidency, based onthe latest state and national polls. A victory by Mr. Trump remains quite possible: Mrs. Clinton’s chance of losing is about the same as the probability thatan N.F.L. kicker misses a field goalfrom the 20-yard line.

From now until Election Day, we’ll update our estimates with each new poll, as well as collect the ratings of other news organizations. You can chart different paths to victory below. Here’s how our estimates have changed over time:June

State-by-State Probabilities

To forecast each party’s chance of winning the presidency, our model calculates win probabilities for each state. In addition tothe latest state polls, our forecast incorporates a state’s past election results and national polling.

The table below shows our model’s estimate for Democrats and Republicans in all 50 states and Washington, D.C. We have put the states into five groups based on their voting history relative to the nation since 2004.

Our estimates in states that tend to vote ...

How Other Forecasts Compare

The New York Times is one of many news organizations to publish election ratings or forecasts. Some, likeFiveThirtyEightor thePrinceton Election Consortium, use statistical models, as The Times does; others, like theCook Political Report, rely on reporting and knowledgeable experts’ opinions.PredictWiseuses information from betting markets.

We compile and standardize these ratings every day into one scoreboard for comparison. First, every organization’s estimate for who will win the presidency:

Second, each organization’s state-by-state ratings. Viewed together, the differences between the models become much clearer.