Itoobiya ayaa Isniinta u dareereysa doorashooyin heer federaal iyo heer gobol ah, iyadoo Ra’iisul Wasaare Abiy Ahmed la filayo inuu sii adkeysto awooddiisa, balse weerarrada sii xoogeysanaya ee maleeshiyaadka Fano ee gobolka Amxaarada ayaa carqaladeynaya codbixinta mid ka mid ah gobollada siyaasadeed ahaan ugu xasaasisan dalkaas.

Guddiga Doorashooyinka Qaranka Itoobiya ayaa shaaciyay in codbixin aysan ka dhici doonin 46 deegaan-doorasho, oo ay ku jiraan siddeed ku yaalla Amxaarada iyo dhammaan 38-ka deegaan-doorasho ee Tigray, sababo la xiriira amni-darro iyo xaalado uu guddigu ku tilmaamay kuwo aan ku habbooneyn qabashada doorasho.

Carqaladdan ayaa imtixaan weyn ku ah Abiy, oo xisbigiisa Prosperity Party la filayo inuu ku gacan sarreeyo doorashada 1-da June, inkastoo ay jiraan dagaallo hubeysan oo ka socda Amxaarada iyo Oromia, ka maqnaanshaha Tigray ee codbixinta, iyo cabashooyinka mucaaradka ee ah in fagaarihii siyaasadda si weyn loo ciriiriyay.

 

In ka badan 50 milyan oo qof ayaa isu diiwaangeliyay inay codeeyaan, sida uu sheegay guddiga doorashada, dal ay ku nool yihiin ku dhowaad 120 milyan oo qof. Natiijooyinka ayaa la filayaa in la shaaciyo 11-ka June.

Hase yeeshee, gobolka Amxaarada oo ah gobolka labaad ee ugu dadka badan Itoobiya, doorashada ayaa gashay xiisad ka dhalatay kacdoonka Fano, oo ah dhaqdhaqaaq maleeshiyaad qowmiyadeed ah oo markii hore garab ka siiyay ciidamada federaalka dagaalkii Tigray ee 2020-2022, balse dowladda federaalka dagaal kala hor yimid sanadkii 2023.

Halista Fano

Hay’adda Mareykanka fadhigeedu yahay ee Critical Threats Project (CTP) ayaa falanqeyn ay toddobaadkan soo saartay ku sheegtay in Fano ay tan iyo bishii March weerarro joogto ah ka wadday waqooyiga gobolka Amxaarada.

CTP waxay sheegtay in heerka weerarrada Fano uu kordhay in ka badan 50 boqolkiiba intii u dhaxeysay March iyo May, marka loo barbardhigo saddexdii bilood ee ka horreysay ee December ilaa February.

Hay’addu waxay sheegtay in dagaalyahannada Fano ay isku dayeen inay la wareegaan ama ku loollamaan magaalooyin ku yaalla waddooyinka muhiimka ah ee gala Bahir Dar, caasimadda gobolka Amxaarada, isla markaana ay bartilmaameedsadeen xarumo iyo shaqaale doorasho, si ay u wiiqaan sharciyadda codbixinta.

 

Dhaqdhaqaaqa Amhara Fano National Movement, oo CTP ay ku tilmaantay garabka ugu awoodda badan Fano, ayaa bishii March uga digay xisbiyada mucaaradka inay ka qeyb galaan doorashada.

"Halgan-ka aan wadno ma aha mid lagu xallin karo siyaasad nabadeed oo caadi ah,” ayuu ururka Fano ku yiri bayaan ay baahisay warbaahinta Borkena. "Waa halgan jiritaan.”

Kooxda ayaa ugu baaqday xisbiyada inay "ka baxaan doorashada”, iyadoo ku eedeysay xisbiga talada haya ee Prosperity Party inuu doonayo inuu codbixinta ku helo sharciyad siyaasadeed, xilli uu dagaal ka wado Amxaarada.

 

‘Rasaas dhexdeeda’

Dowladda federaalka Itoobiya ayaa beenisay eedeymaha ah inay bartilmaameedsato shacabka, waxayna sheegtay in howlgallada millateri ay ujeeddadoodu tahay soo celinta amniga iyo kala dambeynta.

Sida ay sheegtay CTP, ciidamada difaaca Itoobiya ee ENDF ayaa tan iyo dhammaadkii March 2026 xoojiyay joogitaankooda Amxaarada, waxayna bilaabeen weerarro rogaal-celis ah.

 

Warbaahin taageerta Fano ayaa sheegtay in ciidanka dowladda ay 20,000 oo askari u direen inay dib ula wareegaan gacan ku haynta South Gondar, oo ah aag ku dhow Bahir Dar, balse tiradaas si madax-bannaan looma xaqiijin karo.

CTP waxay sheegtay in weerarrada ENDF ee ka dhanka ah Fano ay ku dhowaad saddex jibaarmeen intii u dhaxeysay March iyo April 2026, isla markaana ay sii kordheen bishii May. Si kastaba, hay’addu waxay sheegtay in Fano ay weli sii wadday dhaqdhaqaaq sare, iyadoo May 2026 ay noqoneyso bishii ugu firfircooneyd kooxda tan iyo bilowga sanadkan.

Rabshadaha ayaa madaxda doorashada geliyay xaalad adag, gaar ahaan deegaanada awoodda dowladda federaalka weli lagu muransan yahay.

 

Suxufiyiin iyo falanqeeyayaal ayaa sheegaya in amni-darradu ay sidoo kale adkeysay in la ogaado inta qof ee si dhab ah uga qeyb qaadan karta codbixinta.

"Waa xaalad adag oo labada dhinacba culeys leh,” ayuu yiri Redie Bereketeab, oo ah cilmi-baare arrimaha Geeska Afrika ah oo ka tirsan Nordic Africa Institute.

"Dowladdu waxay u baahan tahay inay qabato doorasho si ay u muujiso sharciyaddeeda, balse ka qeybgal buuxa kama suurtoobi doono Tigray, Amxaarada, ama qeybo badan oo Oromia ah,” ayuu yiri.

 

"Haddii aadan doorasho ka qaban saddexdaas gobol iyo qowmiyadahaas waaweyn, markaas doorashadu waxay luminaysaa sharciyad,” ayuu sii raaciyay.

Magaalada Lalibela, oo ah magaalo taariikhi ah oo ku taalla Amxaarada, laguna yaqaan kaniisadaha dhagaxa laga qoday, AFP ayaa kasoo xigatay hage dalxiis in codbixinta ka baxsan magaalada ay adkaan doonto, maadaama Fano iyo ciidamada federaalka ay si joogto ah u dagaallamaan.

Mucaarad daciif ah

Abiy, oo 49 jir ah, ayaa Itoobiya xukumayay tan iyo 2018, markaas oo uu xilka ku yimid isagoo ballanqaaday furfurnaan dimoqraadi ah kadib sanado ay socdeen bannaanbaxyo looga soo horjeeday isbahaysigii hore ee talada hayay.

Wuxuu xabsiga kasii daayay maxaabiis siyaasadeed, wuxuu dalka ku soo celiyay kooxo mucaarad ah oo musaafuris ku maqnaa, wuxuuna 2019 ku guuleystay abaalmarinta Nobel Peace Prize kadib heshiiskii nabadeed ee Eritrea.

Laakiin dadka dhaliila ayaa sheegaya in isbeddelladii hore ay u xuubsiibteen cadaadis cusub, oo ay ku jiraan xarigga suxufiyiinta, cadaadis lagu hayo bulshada rayidka ah iyo howlgallo millateri oo ka socda gobollo ay xiisado ka jiraan.

 

Xisbiga Prosperity Party ayaa si weyn ugu guuleystay doorashadii 2021, isagoo helay 410 ka mid ah 484 kursi oo baarlamaanka ah. Mar kale ayaa la filayaa inuu doorashadan ku gacan sarreeyo, iyadoo ay ka caawinayaan mucaarad kala daadsan iyo awoodda uu ku leeyahay hay’adaha dowladda.

AFP ayaa toddobaadkan werisay in xisbiga talada haya uu keligiis ku tartamayo 64 ka mid ah 547 deegaan-doorasho, halka xisbiyada mucaaradka ee waaweyn aysan heysan awood ku filan oo ay si dhab ah ugu loollamaan Abiy.

"Qabashada doorasho xaaladahan oo kale ah waxay asal ahaan noqoneysaa hab-maamuus loogu talagalay in caalamka lagu tuso in dowladda shantii sanaba mar ay dadku doortaan,” ayuu AFP u sheegay Merera Gudina, oo ah guddoomiyaha guddiga xisbiyada mucaaradka.

 

Dowladda ayaa beenisa inay caburiso tartanka siyaasadeed, waxayna sheegtaa in tallaabooyinka sharci ee laga qaado siyaasiyiinta mucaaradka lagu saleeyo sharciga.

Cadaadiska Tigray

Kacdoonka Amxaarada ayaa kusoo beegmaya xilli dowladda Abiy ay wajahayo xiisado cusub oo kala dhaxeeya kooxda Tigray People’s Liberation Front (TPLF). Ciidamada TPLF ayaa dagaal dhiig badan ku daatay oo laba sano socday la galay dowladda federaalka, ka hor inta labada dhinac aysan 2022 ku saxiixin Pretoria heshiis nabadeed.

 

TPLF ayaa bishan qaaday tallaabo ay dib ugu soo celisay dowladdii gobolka ee dagaalka ka hor, oo uu hoggaaminayo Debretsion Gebremichael, taasoo meesha ka saartay maamulkii ku-meel-gaarka ahaa ee Tigray ee taageerada ka haystay dowladda federaalka, islamarkaana cadaadis xooggan saartay heshiiskii Pretoria.

Bishii April, TPLF waxay dowladda federaalka ku eedeysay inay jebisay heshiiska Pretoria, waxayna sheegtay in Addis Ababa ay "ku degdegeyso inay mar kale billowdo dagaal dhiig badan ku daato”.

Getachew Reda, oo horey u ahaa afhayeenka TPLF, marna soo noqday madaxa maamulka ku-meel-gaarka ah ee Tigray, ayaa tallaabada TPLF ku tilmaamay "diidmo cad” oo ka dhan ah nidaamkii dagaalka kadib la dhisay.

 

CTP waxay sheegtay in dhaqdhaqaaqa Fano uu kala bixin karo awoodda millateri ee dowladda federaalka, xilli Addis Ababa ay sidoo kale wajahayo is-mari-waa kala dhaxeeya TPLF.

Hay’addu waxay sheegtay in ENDF ay bishii February ciidamo horey ugu sugnaa Amxaarada u dirtay dhinaca xadka Tigray, taasoo abuurtay firaaq amni oo Fano ay uga faa’iideysatay inay qabsato magaalooyin ku yaalla waddooyin muhiim ah.

Doorashada Itoobiya sidaas darteed ma aha oo keliya tartan baarlamaan. Waxay sidoo kale noqotay tijaabo muujineysa inta ay dowladda federaalka gaarsiin karto awooddeeda dal weli ay ragaadiyeen dagaallo, kacdoonno hubeysan iyo loollan qowmiyadeed.